Prepared by: Andy Choi
Confidentiality Statement: This document is intended for informational purposes only and is based on publicly available information and the provided source material. However, the analysis and insights contained herein are proprietary and copyrighted. This document should not be distributed, reproduced, or disclosed without prior written consent.
The current market turning point is a great opportunity for Blackstone. Coming off an extended duration marked by flat mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offering (IPO) activities, capital markets are exhibiting strong signs of recovery, prompted by declining inflation and the forthcoming decrease in interest rates. This evolution is the main trigger for unleashing Blackstone's record $6.6 billion in net accrued performance revenues - an impressive source of unrealised earnings. At the same time, challenging fundraising conditions over the last 24 months have caused a "flight to quality" in institutional investor demand, consequently directing a flow of funds toward scaled, multi-product platforms like Blackstone. This dynamic has facilitated the firm to deploy its $181 billion in "dry powder" into a less congested market environment at better valuations, consequently building foundations for the next generation of returns whilst reinforcing its market leadership in an even greater sense.
Three Key Findings
Dominant Scale in a Secular Growth Market: Blackstone's status as the global leader in alternative asset management, with $1.2 trillion in managed assets, represents an unmatched source of competition. The industry is experiencing a structural flow of funds from public to private markets, set to grow from approximately $18 trillion to approximately $29 trillion in 2029. Blackstone's leadership is being fortified by a "winner-take-most" dynamic as investors are increasingly focusing their relationships in reputable, scaled platforms.
Resilient, High-Quality Financial Model: The company's earnings are supported by a growing foundation of stable, recurring Fee-Related Earnings (FRE), which in Q2 2025 reached $1.5 billion, representing 31% YoY growth. This is a stable foundation and supports the dividend, with the cyclic Distributable Earnings (DE) component providing substantial upside as exit markets come back. The extension of business lines into perpetual capital vehicles ($485B in AUM) adds additional earnings quality and predictability.
Falling into a Realisation Super-Cycle: A record $6.6 billion in net accrued performance revenues is sitting on the balance sheet, or approximately $5.37 per share. With thawing M&A and IPO markets, monetisation of unrealised gains is by far the greatest near-term earnings and shareholder distributions' catalyst. Acceleration in realisations is anticipated exiting 2025 and continuing into 2026 by management.3
Investment Thesis
Blackstone is a core investment in companies seeking exposure to private market long-term growth. Its unparalleled scale and diversified platform, including private equity, real estate, credit, and multi-asset solutions, have built a strong financial model where stable Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) create a steady foundation, and a large reservoir of built-in performance revenues offers a significant upside potential as global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital markets recover. The most recent phase defined by a scarcity of capital and volatile markets has amplified Blackstone's scale advantages, fueling a "flight to quality" among Limited Partners, which further cements its leadership in its market and fosters compelling deployment opportunities. With a record-breaking $181 billion in available capital, the firm is well positioned to acquire high-quality assets at disciplined prices. Normalisation of the exit environment, fostered over the next 12 to 24 months, is the key catalyst, allowing Blackstone to unlock a record $6.6 billion in net accrued performance fees and spur a potential Distributable Earnings and cash return to shareholders increase.
Valuation
Blackstone always trades at a premium relative to its peers, a reflection of its advantaged scale, diversified platform, and high-caliber earnings. Standard Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiples are oftentimes misstated by mark-to-market volatility; thus, a Price-to-Distributable-Earnings (P/DE) ratio or a sum-of-the-parts analysis provides a better accuracy-based evaluation framework. The stable, annuity-like income stream of Fee-Related Earnings warrants a higher multiple, whereas the cyclic revenue stream has significant latent value. Presently, at a P/E ratio of about 49.6x, it is trading ahead of its five-year average of about 39.7x and the industry median, a premium justified by its leadership and growth potential.
PLEASE NOTE: Including a "5-Year Average of Forward EPS Growth" in the valuation summary for Blackstone is inadvisable because the metric is both statistically misleading and practically unobtainable. The extreme volatility inherent in Blackstone's GAAP earnings, which are driven by the timing of large and irregular asset sales, means that any historical average is inevitably skewed by outlier years, for example the massive +442.0% growth reported in 2021, rendering the figure non-representative of the company's true underlying growth path. For a credible forward-looking analysis, it is standard practice to omit this metric and focus exclusively on the current, consensus-driven Forward EPS Growth forecast, which is a far more relevant and stable indicator for valuation.
However, Blackstone is a centerpiece strategic asset in portfolios focused on growth, which provide liquid exposure to the secular growth of private markets, often underweight in public indexes. The financial profile of the stock includes a stable, dividend-generating component (based on FRE) and a high-torque, cyclic component related to capital markets (corresponding to DE), hence a distinct risk-return profile. The asset is a complement to current exposures in traditional technology and financials. I am personally favoring an Overweight position relative to the sector of Financials in the S&P 500, gradually building a position to capitalise on potential weakness in the market.
Major Risks & Mitigants
Capital Markets Downturn: A prolonged "risk-off" market mood would put back investment exits by IPOs or M&A, deferring crystallisation of attractive performance revenues and affecting distributable earnings.
Mitigant: The Company has a large and growing base of stable Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) that is contractual in nature and non-timing dependent. This feature provides a significant and stable earnings buffer to offset performance fee fluctuations.
Severe Global Recession: A significant economic slowdown could negatively impact the valuations of underlying portfolio companies and slow down the pace of fundraising, as institutional clients face their own liquidity issues.
Mitigant: Blackstone's thematic emphasis on resilient sectors characterised by secular tailwinds, such as digital infrastructure, energy transition, and logistics, offers a protective buffer. Moreover, its extensive private credit division frequently retains floating-rate debt, which can serve as a hedge during an environment of rising interest rates that commonly precedes an economic slowdown.
Step Up in Regulatory Focus: The private equity sector is constantly at risk of further regulation, particularly in matters of fees and possible negative amendments to the tax status of carried interest.
Mitigant: The unprecedented size of Blackstone gives the firm a high-level global compliance platform and significant resources dedicated to policy advocacy, in turn facilitating it in navigating and forecasting regulatory developments ahead of its smaller peers.
Pressure of Insider Selling: There has been quite notable insider selling over recent months, which does need to be watched closely, as it could be interpreted by the market as being a weak signal about future returns or valuation.
Mitigant: Despite such sales, the founders and long-serving executives continue to hold a substantial ownership in the company. Such a structure creates a strong "skin in the game" situation, hence aligning their interests with long-term public holders.
Important forward indicators I'm tracking:
Blackstone is described as the largest alternative asset manager globally, serving institutional and individual clients. The company's main business is investing funds on behalf of its clients in long-term, illiquid investments. The business operates through four core segments: Real Estate, which accounts for 32% of fee-earning assets under management (AUM); Credit & Insurance, representing 33%; Private Equity, representing 26%, and Multi-Asset Investing, representing 9%. Geographically, its portfolio has a global scope, albeit heavily concentrated in North America and Europe. The client base is broadly diversified, serving over 100 million pensioners globally through institutional clients, including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, as well as a fast-growing private wealth channel aimed at high-net-worth individuals. The business model has shown substantial scalability, applying its proprietary data and insights based on its portfolio of over 250 companies and over 12,500 real estate properties to identify thematic trends and potential investments.
CEO and Key Managers: The firm is led by its founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, Stephen A. Schwarzman, who has been in leadership since its establishment in 1985. President and COO Jonathan Gray, who is generally regarded as the likely successor, was central in developing its leading real estate franchise. The Chief Financial Officer is Michael Chae. The leadership has a very high degree of experience with long tenures in place at the company, thereby ensuring strategic continuity.
Capital Allocations Policy: The most dominant capital allocation strategy of Blackstone is shareholder-friendly, as it distributes most of its Distributable Earnings as dividend equivalents. The corporation applies its share repurchase programs in a calculated fashion as well, most recently expanding its authority to $2.0 billion. The business's reinvestment is concentrated on developing new growth sectors such as insurance, infrastructure, and private wealth solutions.
Governance: The board consists of a combination of insiders and outside directors. Co-founder Stephen Schwarzman is Chairman, and long-time executives have significant ownership stakes, aligning their interests with those of public shareholders.
Investing Thesis and Key Drivers
Driver 1: Secular Shift to Private Markets → Recent Developments: Global investors are systematically adding allocations to alternative assets in pursuit of higher return and diversification.
Why it matters: The trend is projected to raise the industry's AUM by over $10 trillion by 2029, providing a robust secular tailwind for the dominant player. KPI(s) supporting: Industry-wide AUM growth; Blackstone's LTM fundraising inflows ($212B).
Driver 2: The "Flight to Quality" Consolidation → Current Trends: Hard fundraising is driving Limited Partners (LPs) toward consolidations of investments in a few big and quality managers.
Why it matters: This enforces Blackstone's leadership such that it is in a position to capture a disproportionate level of capital flows and reinforce its competitive moat. → Supporting KPI(s): Blackstone's AUM expansion better than most smaller peers by +13% YoY; successful closure of mega-funds.
Driver 3: Unlocking Hidden Incremental Earnings through Realisations → What's occurring: Following a two-year slowdown, M&A and IPO markets are slowly gaining pace, sparked by stabilising interest rates and building demand.
Why it matters: This directly facilitates Blackstone to cash out appreciated assets and see its record $6.6 billion in net accrued performance revenues, which flow into Distributable Earnings and dividends. Supporting KPI(s): Quarterly realisation volumes ($23.4B in Q2 2025); increase in Net Accrued Performance Revenues.
Driver 4: Democratisation of Alternatives → Recent Developments: Blackstone leadership in growing availability of private market products in the private wealth channel, a large and underpenetrated market, is a strong trend.
Why it matters: This diversifies BlackRock's funding sources and builds a enormous perpetual capital base ($485B), providing extremely stable and recurring management fees, increasing over-all earnings quality. → Corresponding KPI(s): Private Wealth AUM growth (up to $280B): flows into perpetual products like BREIT and BCRED.
Industry Structure & Competitive Moat
The alternative asset management sector has a total addressable market (TAM) of over $18 trillion, estimated to reach nearly $29 trillion in 2029.6 The market share is fast concentrating in a handful of mega-managers' hands. Blackstone is currently leader in terms of AUM ($1.21T), then peers KKR ($0.55T), Apollo ($0.60T), and Carlyle ($0.43T).
Competitive Moat Sources: Blackstone's moat lies in its unparalleled scale, providing a virtuous cycle of proprietary data, deal flow, and fundraising premiums; its brand and track record, which are crucial in a business based upon trust; and diversification by asset class, providing resiliency and cross-platform insight. The key threats are a potential rise in big sovereign wealth funds practicing in-house management, additional competition from other mega-managers, and fee compression, although the latter has been less pronounced in alternatives than in core asset management. The industry is exposed to risk of higher scrutiny by antitrust regulators as well as a change in tax treatment of carried interest. Where the largest barriers are brand recognition, a 30-year history of performance, and a very large scale in order to qualify for very large deals and to bring in institutional capital. These barriers are very high and are rising higher.
Financial Quality and Model Highlights
Revenue in Blackstone is cyclic, aligned to performance fees, but its core management fee base shows consistent growth (base fees +14% YoY in Q2 2025). High gross and operating margins are volatile depending upon realisation timings. The firm shows robust free cash flow conversion and a robust balance sheet with very high liquidity. Shareholder returns are a point of emphasis, primarily through a variable dividend policy aligned to distributable earnings. The spread between Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is a crucial value creation metric. Blackstone's own WACC is not disclosed, although its ROIC has been very strong in the history, as high as 42.9% in 2021 and as low as 16.9% for 2024. This is a sign that the company has been able to generate outcomes higher than its potential cost of capital, thereby capturing a great deal of economic value.
Margin Trajectory Line Chart Data (Gross vs. Operating):
(Note: Availability of steady margin history is not furnished in the clips. The most significant financial figures are tabulated in the next table.)
These financial figures document a model of a volatile yet profitable business. Such is not a weakness, but a fundamental characteristic of the alternative asset management sector.
Revenue and EPS Volatility: The dramatic revenue and earnings fluctuations, represented by the jump in 2021 and then a dramatic drop in 2022 and 2023, don't suggest operational volatility. Instead, such fluctuations are a direct reflection of cyclical realisations, relating to achieving asset disposals. The year 2021 was a year of unprecedented opportunity to take advantage of investments in a rising market, while subsequent years saw a slowdown. The abnormality is actually the underlying nature of performance fee-driven earnings.
Underlying Margin Strength: In spite of top-line fluctuation, operating margins remain steadfastly very high, usually above 40%. This reflects strong operating leverage and high profitability. When performance fees are realised by Blackstone, they accrue to the bottom line with little cost associated, reflecting huge scalability of model.
It follows a similar "lumpy" behavior as earnings. While this might make dividend payout appear erratic, it also in tandem highlights that high volumes of cash are generated by this model when market conditions are favorable to divest investments. In conclusion, the financial quality is commendable, marked by a structurally profitable model. It is essential to recognise that the firm's GAAP results are crafted to reflect value on a cyclical basis rather than generate consistent, linear growth. The stability is derived from the expanding foundation of Fee-Related Earnings (FRE), which serves as a stabilising force against the fluctuating performance fees.
Blackstone's financials exhibit a business model that has inherent volatility but exceptional profitability and an extremely strong balance sheet. Underlying the headline figures, which flutter about, is consistently superb franchise quality.
Net Income & EPS Volatility
As mentioned above, GAAP Net Income is the principal driver of the model's volatility. It is highly influenced by non-cash, mark-to-market accounting on unrealized investments. The TTM figure is very volatile and is why it is often more helpful to examine the core cash-generating figures that smooth out this market-driven volatility. For the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, Blackstone had GAAP Net Income of approximately $5.7 billion. This figure demonstrates the enormous earnings power but also the inherent variability that comes with investment performance.
EBITDA and Core Profitability
The most critical metrics of Blackstone's "core profitability" confirm its strength: Distributable Earnings (DE): Over the last twelve months, DE was a staggering $6.4 billion. This is the single largest number representing the actual cash profit for distributing to the shareholders and is the best reflection of the company's cyclical, cash-harvesting model. Fee-Related Earnings (FRE): Underpinning this performance is the firm's $5.7 billion of Fee-Related Earnings for the last twelve months. This is the highest-quality and most stable earnings stream, providing a steady, recurring profit base that acts as a ballast to more volatile performance-based income.
Balance Sheet Strength
Blackstone boasts a fortress balance sheet, a cornerstone of its financial quality. The company is operated with conservative leverage at the corporate level, high liquidity, and a high A+ investment-grade credit rating from S&P. While the exact corporate cash versus debt mix is not specified, the key structural consideration is as follows: the significant debt used for buyouts is maintained at the individual fund level and is non-recourse to the parent company. This buffers the firm against defaults by portfolio firms and provides it with immense stability and the ability to invest during market downturns.
Valuation Work-Up
Relative Multiples vs. Pairs and Historical Context
Blackstone's multiples are richer than its direct peers and a reflection of its superior scale, growth, and expected strong rebound in earnings as realisations pick up speed. The current P/E is 49.6x, ahead of its 5-year ave of 39.7x, reflecting robust expectations being priced in.
b) DCF / Reverse DCF
Detailed DCF is beyond its purview, though a reverse DCF analysis indicates that to justify its current valuation, the market is implicitly considering continued high-single-digit to low-double-digit expansion in Fee-Related Earnings and significant crystallisation of performance fees accrued in 3-5 years.
Reality Check: These implied earnings and revenue growth rates are in line with consensus analyst forecasts, which are calling for more than 26% annual earnings growth and more than 16% annual revenue growth. Therefore keeping with management's optimistic remarks concerning fundraising pick-up and a forecasted pick-up in realisations.
The data irrefutably shows that Blackstone is valued at a significant and permanent premium relative to both its peers as well as its historical averages. The discussion focuses upon the justification of this premium valuation attributed by the market. Blackstone's premium valuation is not random. The market gives it "best-in-class" status due to several reasons, being the world's largest alternative asset manager, its brand attracts a higher amount of capital, described as a "flight to quality," and gives exposure to the best of deals. To solidify this, the group is more diversified with a higher profile of growth, particularly in high-growth areas such as private credit, infrastructure, and the private wealth channel.
Ultimately, Investors value more Blackstone's large and growing base of stable, recurring Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) compared to peers that might rely more on market-based performance fees.
Interpretation of multiples:
P/E and P/S Metrics: At 49.6x P/E and 10.5x P/S, Blackstone trades at over twice its peer median. This indicates investors have price in very lofty expectations of future expansion, well in excess of that of peers. Trading above its own 5-year average across these measures indicates current market sentiment is especially positive.
FCF Yield: The low free cash flow (FCF) yield of 2.5% is one facet of the high-valuation trend. A high price relative to current cash flow results in a low yield. The picture here shows that investors are willing to invest substantially now in hopes of large cash flows when this realisation cycle is at full potential.
The valuation is irrefutably tough and does not leave much room for error. The valuation gives Blackstone a valuation that assumes almost flawless execution and continued market leadership. The key debate among investors is whether its outstanding growth profile and durable franchise deserve paying this significant premium.
Scenario Analysis (Base, Bull, Bear)
These three cases provide possible trajectories for Blackstone's performance, which are subject to macroeconomic factors and firm execution. The Base Case represents consensus, and the Bull and Bear cases consider upside and downside risk, respectively, about the central hypothesis.
Base Case: This scenario envisions a gradual return to normality of capital markets in 2025 and 2026, in accordance with consensus economic forecasts of slowly declining inflation and slowly decreasing interest rates. Under such conditions, Blackstone would see a sustained pick-up in realisation action, allowing partial monetisation of its built-up performance fee accumulations. The growth in AUM would stay healthily paced, aided by continued "flight to quality" as well as Private Wealth and credit expansion. This is in accordance with consensus analyst estimates of revenue as well as EPS growth.
Bull Case: A "V-shaped" recovery in global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offerings (IPO) markets would catalyse this scenario. A swift reduction in interest rates, coupled with a notable increase in investor confidence, would enable Blackstone to rapidly realise the majority of its $6.6 billion in accrued carry, resulting in a considerable increase in Distributable Earnings and dividends. Furthermore, this environment would expedite fundraising cycles and facilitate the allocation of dry powder into appreciating assets, thereby contributing to revenue and earnings growth that significantly exceeds current consensus projections.
Bear Case: The main bear case is a prolonged period of high interest rates in combination with a worldwide recession in the economy. This would make exit markets inactive, thus preventing realisation of performance fees and negatively impacting Distributable Earnings. The result would be lower portfolio company valuations, translating into negative marks and difficulties in mobilising new capital. This would create a severe challenge in the entire private equity business model, and Blackstone, though robust, would see its earnings and valuation multiple shrink significantly.
Catalysts and Timeline
It is aided by a variety of near- to medium-term catalysts that should occur over the next 12 to 24 months. These events are leading indicators in ascertaining whether or not the thesis is unfolding. The most crucial factor is global capital market environments, as a revival of the mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings windows is indispensable in realising the company's latent earnings potential.
Decisions made by central banks, especially those of the U.S. Federal Reserve, hold significant importance. A sequence of interest rate reductions, which is expected to persist through 2025-2026, would result in a decrease in the cost of capital, enhance financing conditions for new agreements, and bolster higher asset valuations, consequently fostering increased transaction activity.
The successful exit of a significant portfolio company through a strategic sale or initial public offering (IPO) would be a strong sign that the realisation climate is gaining clarity. This would trigger the process of converting the $6.6 billion in built-in performance fees into distributable cash for shareholders. Management has indicated their anticipation of a pick-up in this activity toward the end of 2025 and beyond. Nevertheless, the completion of significant flagship funds, including the newly established Secondaries fund aimed at exceeding $22 billion, serves as concrete proof of Blackstone's acquisitions of market share and secures future streams of management fees. Periodic earnings releases give vital points of information relating to fundraising inflows, deployment speed, realisation quantities, as well as Fee-Related Earnings' growth, so that investors may follow the company's results as against thesis.
Risk Map (Company, Macro, and Policy)
While the thesis for the investment is reasonable, it is subject to a variety of risks that could impair performance. These are listed in categories below, along with possible mitigants inherent in Blackstone's business model.
Company-Specific Risks: The most significant company-specific risk is execution. With a never-before-available $181 billion of deployable capital, the company faces the dilemma of finding attractive investments at scale without excessive costs, especially as recovery begins in markets. Accelerated growth, particularly in nascent industries like the private wealth channel, could also lead to operational efficiencies or surprises, which are not anticipated. Finally, there has been significant insider selling in recent years, which is a poor sign as regards management's view of valuation and warrants close tracking.
Macro Risks: The performance of Blackstone is correlated directly to global economy and capital market health. An elongated or deeper recession would adversely affect earnings and multiples of portfolio companies, whereas a "risk-off" period would result in exit markets closing, thus deferring realisation of performance fees. In addition, a "higher-for-longer" interest rate scenario beyond current market forecasts would prove a stumbling block for dealmaking and multiples. Geopolitics and higher trade tensions are another risk to the firm's globally diversified portfolio.
Policy Risks: The alternative asset management sector is continually exposed to political and regulatory pressures. Potential changes in taxation of carried interest in the United States are a long-term risk that could have an impact upon after-tax profitability for the firm's executives. Further, stepped-up antitrust enforcement or other regulatory action could make it difficult to consummate large-scale transactions.
ESG & Policy Considerations
Blackstone embeds Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations as an integral component of its value creation process, not only as a compliance function. The firm treats decarbonisation and diversity as economically material performance drivers. Through its Blackstone Decarbonisation Accelerator, it seeks to provide value-accretive emissions reduction projects throughout its portfolio, contending that energy savings reduce operating expenses and increase profitability.
House-View Link
Blackstone is specifically aligned with a few key long-term macro themes. The firm's focus on digital infrastructure, such as data centers and fiber, as well as its exposures to the energy transition and life sciences, place it as a central enabler of the next phase of economic growth. The ongoing redistribution of capital from public to private is a decades-long structural trend that underpins the firm's growth thesis. J.P. Morgan points out in a report that normalisation of interest rates and deregulation process are building a favorable backdrop for a rebound in private equity deal activity, which is a direct boon to Blackstone's business model.
The Counterargument
The most likely bearish scenario is based on a "higher-for-longer" interest rate climate, coupled with a shallow but prolonged economic slowdown. Under these circumstances, a much-awaited recovery in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and initial public offerings (IPOs) does not come to pass, thus keeping Blackstone's exit window for mature assets mainly closed. This would then bring about an indefinite delay in realising the $6.6 billion in built-in performance fees, causing a stagnation in Distributable Earnings and most probably a de-rating of its premium valuation multiple. Furthermore, sustained inflation coupled with sluggish growth would take a toll on portfolio companies' margins, a move that could trigger valuation markdowns and make it difficult to raise fresh flagship funds at a scale similar to that of their predecessors.
Final Bottom Line
Blackstone remains the ultimate enabler and beneficiary of the prolonged growth in private markets. I maintain an Overweight rating relative to financial indexes, as the company's strong fee-related earnings and meaningful latent opportunity for performance fees create an attractive asymmetric risk/reward profile. The upside potential stemming from a normalisation of capital markets is extra compelling over a 3-5 years horizon, over which the powerful, long-term trends of global capital allocation to alternatives are expected to drive superior shareholder returns.
Confidentiality Statement: This document is intended for informational purposes only and is based on publicly available information and the provided source material. However, the analysis and insights contained herein are proprietary and copyrighted. This document should not be distributed, reproduced, or disclosed without prior written consent.
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